package org.singinst.uf.model; public interface UiTextConstant { UiText Q1_1_TEXT = new UiText("Is artificial intelligence possible in principle?", // "<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\">" + "<html>" + // "<HEAD>" + // " <META HTTP-EQUIV=\"CONTENT-TYPE\" CONTENT=\"text/html; charset=windows-1252\">" + // " <TITLE>1)</TITLE>" + // " <META NAME=\"GENERATOR\" CONTENT=\"OpenOffice.org 3.0 (Win32)\">" + // " <META NAME=\"AUTHOR\" CONTENT=\"Michael Anissimov\">" + // " <META NAME=\"CREATED\" CONTENT=\"20081007;10570000\">" + // " <META NAME=\"CHANGEDBY\" CONTENT=\"Rolf Nelson\">" + // " <META NAME=\"CHANGED\" CONTENT=\"20090118;21592300\">" + // " <META NAME=\"CHANGEDBY\" CONTENT=\"Rolf Nelson\">" + // " <STYLE TYPE=\"text/css\">" + // " <!--" + // " @page { margin-left: 0.79in; margin-right: 1.25in; margin-top: 1in; margin-bottom: 1in }" + // " P { margin-bottom: 0.08in; direction: ltr; color: #000000; widows: 2; orphans: 2 }" + // " P.western { font-family: \"Times New Roman\", serif; font-size: 12pt; so-language: en-US }" + // " P.cjk { font-family: \"Times New Roman\", serif; font-size: 12pt }" + // " P.ctl { font-family: \"Times New Roman\", serif; font-size: 12pt; so-language: ar-SA }" + // " A:link { color: #0000ff }" + // " -->" + // " </STYLE>" + // "</HEAD>" + "<BODY LANG=\"en-US\" TEXT=\"#000000\" LINK=\"#0000ff\" DIR=\"LTR\">" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\">Gene sequencing costs" + "have been dropping exponentially for some time. Here is a graph (from" + "Kurzweil 2005) that shows the trend from 1990 to 2004:</P>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><IMG SRC=\"data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhEAAOALMAAOazToeHh0tLS/7LZv/0jvb29t/f3//Ub//ge8WSLf/rhf/3kdbW1mxsbP//mf///yH5BAAAAAAALAAAAAAQAA4AAARe8L1Ekyky67QZ1hLnjM5UUde0ECwLJoExKcpp\n" + "V0aCcGCmTIHEIUEqjgaORCMxIC6e0CcguWw6aFjsVMkkIr7g77ZKPJjPZqIyd7sJAgVGoEGv2xsBxqNgYPj/gAwXEQA7\" " + "ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=500 HEIGHT=383 BORDER=0></P>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>Germline genetic" + "modification for enhancing human intelligence would depend upon the" + "availability and cost of sequenced genomes. When will it be possible" + "to sequence an entire human genome for less than $1000?</P>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" + "</P>" + "<UL>" + " <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-top: 0.19in; margin-bottom: 0in\">" + " <B>Claim: </B>According to the trendline in the Kurzweil graph," + " assuming a sequencing cost of $0.002 per base pair in 2008 (based on" + " a $60,000 full-genome sequence by Applied Biosystems in March 2008)" + " and a cost halving time of 1.9 years, we can assume $1,000 genomes" + " sometime around 2020.<BR><B>Implication: </B>$1,000 genomes in" + " 2020.<BR><B>Source: </B>Kurzweil, Ray. <I>The Singularity is Near:" + " When Humans Transcend Biology</I>. 2005. New York: Penguin" + " (Non-Classics).</P>" + " <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" + " first human genome cost either $3 billion (Human Genome Project) or" + " $300 million (Celera Genomics) in 2001, James Watson’s genome" + " cost $2 million in 2007, and Applied Biosystems sequenced a human" + " genome for $60,000 in two weeks in March 2008. One company," + " Intelligent Bio-systems, has claimed they will be able to provide" + " $5,000, 24-hour genomes by the end of 2008. <BR><B>Implication: </B>The" + " number of human genomes we can sequence for a fixed cost has been" + " increasing at a sharp exponential, often exceeding earlier" + " expectations.<BR><B>Sources:</B> Chu, Wai Lang. "Applied Bio" + " sequences a human genome for $60,000." " + " LabTechnologist.com. 18 Mar. 2008. 9 Aug. 2008" + " <<A HREF=\"http://www.labtechnologist.com/products/applied-bio-sequences-a-human-genome-for-60-000\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.labtechnologist.com/products/applied-bio-sequences-a-human-genome-for-60-000</U></FONT></A>>. <BR>Singer," + " Emily. "The $2 Million Genome." Technology Review. 1" + " June <BR>2007. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 9 Aug." + " 2008 <BR><<A HREF=\"http://www.technologyreview.com/biotech/18809/\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.technologyreview.com/biotech/18809/</U></FONT></A>>. <BR>Wang," + " Brian. "Whole genome sequencing costs continue to fall:" + " $300 <BR>million in 2003, $1 million 2007, $60,000 now, $5000" + " by year end." <BR>Next Big Future. 25 Mar. 2008. 9 Aug." + " 2008 <BR><<A HREF=\"http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/genome-sequencing-costs-continue-to.html\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/genome-sequencing-costs-continue-to.html</U></FONT></A>>. </P>" + "</UL>" + "<UL>" + " <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" + " cost of gene sequencing (per base pair) has been decreasing" + " exponentially since 1970.<BR><B>Implication:</B> Unless something" + " changes, exponential growth in capability will probably continue" + " into the future.<BR><B>Source:</B> Shendure, Jay, Robi D. Mitra," + " Chris Varma, and George M. Church. <BR>"Advanced" + " Sequencing Technologies: Methods and Goals." Nature" + " Reviews <BR>Genetics 5 (2004): 335-44. 9 Aug. 2008" + " <<A HREF=\"http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v5/n5/abs/nrg1325_fs.html\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v5/n5/abs/nrg1325_fs.html</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" + "</UL>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" + "</P>" + "<UL>" + " <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" + " Archon X prize, for rapid sequencing of 100 human genomes at less" + " than $10,000 each, has a deadline of October 2013.<BR><B>Implication:</B>" + " Some scientists think that DNA sequencing costs will continue to" + " drop quickly enough that 2013 is a viable deadline.<BR><B>Source:</B>" + " X Prize Foundation. $10 Million Archon XPrize For Genomics." + " "Archon <BR>Genomics X Prize: Competition Guidelines."" + " 2 Nov. 2006. <BR>9 Aug. 2008" + " <<A HREF=\"http://genomics.xprize.org/files/downloads/genomics/archon_x_prize_for_genomics_competiton_guidelines.pdf\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://genomics.xprize.org/files/downloads/genomics/archon_x_prize_for_genomics_competiton_guidelines.pdf</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" + "</UL>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" + "</P>" + "<UL>" + " <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" + " NHGRI, a government institute, has awarded grants to researchers" + " with the goal of reducing sequencing costs to $1,000/human" + " genome.<BR><B>Implication:</B> A price of $1,000 per genome is a" + " viable research goal in the near term and is already being actively" + " funded.<BR><B>Source: </B>National Institutes of Health. National" + " Human Genome Research <BR>Institute. "NHGRI Aims to Make" + " DNA Sequencing Faster, More Cost <BR>Effective." Press" + " release. 4 Oct. 2006. 9 Aug. 2008 <<A HREF=\"http://www.genome.gov/19518500\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.genome.gov/19518500</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" + "</UL>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-left: 0.25in; margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" + "</P>" + "<UL>" + " <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> 23" + " and Me, a private company, will sequence 600,000 single nucleotide" + " polymorphisms (SNPs) for private individuals for" + " $1,000.<BR><B>Implication:</B> There is a large consumer demand for" + " genomics, so research in this area will continue to be heavily" + " funded.<BR><B>Source:</B> "23 and Me." 24 July 2008. 9" + " Aug. 2008 <<A HREF=\"https://www.23andme.com/\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>https://www.23andme.com/</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" + "</UL>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" + "</P>" + "<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><A NAME=\"0.1_01000004\"></A><A NAME=\"0.1_0100000A\"></A>" + "<BR>" + "</P>" + "</BODY>" + "</html>" ); UiText Q1_2_TEXT = new UiText("When will computing power stop improving exponentially?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_3_TEXT = new UiText("How much computing power for neuromorphic (brain-like) AI?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_4_TEXT = new UiText("How much funding will the largest neuromorphic AI projects have to buy computers with?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_5_TEXT = new UiText("When will we have enough brain imaging technology that we can build neuromorphic (brain-like) AI?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText C1_5_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " + "Based on your answers, here is the (preliminary) probability that neuromorphic artificial intelligence will have been " + "created at different points in the future:</span>", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_6_TEXT = new UiText("What about non-neuromorphic AI? When will that be feasible?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText C1_6_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " + "Based on your answers, here is the (preliminary) probability that artificial intelligence of any sort " + "(neuromorphic or non-neuromorphic) will have been created at different points in the future:</span>", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_7_TEXT = new UiText("What is the probability per year of major nuclear war that disrupts scientific progress?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_8_TEXT = new UiText("What is the probability per year of a non-nuclear catastrophe that disrupts scientific progress?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText C1_8_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:<br></strong> " + "Based on your answers, here is the probability that a science-disrupting disaster will have occurred by " + "different points in the future (assuming, for now, that AI has not occurred):</span>", "TODO: implemente help text"); UiText Q1_9_1_TEXT = new UiText("When will it be possible to sequence an entire human genome for less than $1000?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_9_2_TEXT = new UiText("How long before artificial gametes?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_9_3_TEXT = new UiText("How much do genetic variations contribute to scientific achievement?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_9_4_TEXT = new UiText("How widely will iterated embryo selection technology be adopted?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText Q1_9_5_TEXT = new UiText("What about other methods for enhancing human intelligence?", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText C1_9_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color:#000;'<strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " + "Based on your answers, here is the probability that artificial intelligence will have been created at " + "different points in the future. This time, we're factoring in your probabilities for " + "intelligence enhancement that speeds AI research.</span>", "TODO: implement help text"); UiText C1_10_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " + "Based on your answers, here is the probability that there will have been a civilization-scale disruption " + "to business as usual by different points in the future.</span>", "TODO: implement help text"); }